IN 1991, the administration of Major General Ibrahim .B. Babangida created additional states including Abia State, God's Own State. Administrators were appointed to run the state's affairs until 1993 when Dr. Ogbonnaya Onuh became the first democratically elected Governor of the state. He couldn't complete his term because of ministry intervention.
Abia State is divided into three electoral political zones, Abia North, Abia Central and Abia South. Since the creation of the state nobody from Abia South has ever Governed the state either as an administrator or as Executive Governor. In 1999, the north through Dr. Orji Uzo Kalu governed from 1999 - 2007 and Chief T.A. Orji from Abia Central took over, but by May 29, 2015 his administration comes to an end and a successor must emerge. The question is from which zone? That is the issue of the moment. Zoning, though not written in our constitution is one of the major factors that will influence the electorate come April11, 2015.
When it was time for aspirants to emerge,a man from Abia South, Dr. Okezie Victor Ikpeazu indicated interest on the platform of People Democratic Party, PDP. After a well conducted and contested primary with other aspirants from all the zones in the state, Victor emerged, a first stage in the race of Government House. As we enter the next phase which is the general election were other political parties will present their candidates, surely the issue of zoning will likely play a major role in the voting of the electorate.
It is unlikely that Abians will vote for a candidate from the same zone with the present Governor Chief T.A. Orji, that equally extends to any candidate from Abia North.
Although, Abia State is largely a people democratic party state but there are some other parties with some presence such as the PPA which is a poster & billboard party. In All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, with less than forty days to general election, the electorate is not sure who the governorship candidate is. Some people say it's Alex Oti while others mention the name of another candidate. If it's Alex Oti, where is he from, is he from Arochukwu (Abia North) or from Aro-Ngwa (Abia Central). Some say he was born in Arochukwu but grew up in Ngwa while others claim he was born in Ngwa but grew up in Arochukwu, with this ambiguity, either way, he is certainly not favoured by the zoning permutation.
Secondly, the performance of the present administration which is a PDP government should have some bargaining chip for its candidate. Many are of the view that with Chief T.A. Orji, who also doubles as Chairman of the Eastern Governors forum , Abians have had a good taste of real dividends of democracy. All the previous government carried out the business of State from Temperance government House while the new Government House he started is almost near completion. He also built a modern state secretariat for office complex unlike his predecessors who made use of scattered rented building as offices which was siphoning the state money. The roads, education, health care, spots etc, all got the attention of the government space will not allow me to enumerate all.
In fact, he ended the reign of kidnappers and robbers thereby making the state a safe haven for private investors from within and outside the country. Ikpeazu as a PDP candidate will likely benefit from these legacies of Ochendo.
The third determinant factor will be the position of the political stake holders in the state. It is not in doubt that almost all the political bigwigs in Abia State are members of the People Democratic Party. Some of these bigwigs influence the voting pattern of the electorate from their constituency because of their past achievements. In Abia Central, we have the likes of Chief Onyema Ugochukwu, former NDDC Chairman who presented a formidable opposition during 2007 election. Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, minister of Finance and co-ordinating minister of the economy is also from the central. Some families are benefiaries of the scholarship scheme of some of the bigwigs. Some got employment through their assistance, widows are equally catered for. Some built boreholes and other developmental projects.
The fourth index that could crown it all is the pedigree of the candidates. For Dr. Alex Oti, he is relatively new in the politics of Abia, nothing much is know about him accept that he is a retired banker. His political platform APGA is unpopular in the state. His candidature is still been contested for by another candidate. This crack will certainly affect him negatively.
Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu is the only candidate that is sure of a hundred percent vote from a political zone, the Abia south.
He has held political positions in the past and impacted the life of many citizens, built bridges across all strata. He is not a new entrant into Abia political firmanent.
Mr. Martin Eze, a political analyst, wrote from Umuahia, Abia State.
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